At the end of January, we are rolling out our annual data update, bringing together the latest population, census, and market information into a single, coordinated refresh.
This update includes Carterwood’s annual revision of prevalence rates, alongside refreshed underlying data. This includes new ONS population projections and the latest Scotland Census data, all consolidated into one comprehensive update.
With improved population projections and updated Census inputs, this represents the most accurate dataset available to supercharge commercial and investment decision-making in elderly care.
Annual data updates for more robust planning
High-quality data sits at the heart of everything we do. Each year, we update our datasets to reflect the latest market conditions, ensuring the figures within our platforms — and the insights within our advice — are based on the most up-to-date information available.
This enables investors, developers, and care home operators to make more informed assumptions and stronger commercial projections.
Clear, actionable insights
Our data provides customers with an accurate, current view of population dynamics, enabling analysis of occupancy, supply and demand assumptions, and location-based factors such as drive times and postcode catchments.
For existing clients, advisory reports produced from January onwards already reflect the updated population and demand data. Platform users will have access to the full dataset after the weekend of 31 January 2026.
This year’s update shows overall positive movement in market figures, with some regional variation — most notably in Scotland following the release of the new Census data.
Carterwood’s key takeaways from the latest update:
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- Overall demand has increased by a net 1.0% across Great Britain from 2025 to 2026, broadly in line with last year’s 1.2% increase. This ranges from a 1.8% decline in the North East to a 3.8% increase in Scotland.
- Updated population projections increase the total estimated population in Great Britain for 2026 from c.66.4m to c.68.0m (around 2.4%).
- The 65+ population remains broadly stable, increasing by 0.3% from 13.26m to 13.29m. As a result, the proportion of people aged 65+ has fallen slightly from 20.0% to 19.6%.
- Incorporating the 2021 Census data suggests stronger population growth from 2021–2026 (and beyond) than previously projected in 2018.
- Due to the 11-year gap between the two Scottish censuses (2011 to 2022), the number of qualifying households owned outright by someone over 65 increased significantly.
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Next steps for current customers
Log in to Carterwood Analytics for Elderly Care Homes
Log in to Carterwood Analytics for Retirement Living
Once you’ve logged in, we recommend refreshing recent searches and downloading any reports you wish to review that include Census 2021 data and enhanced Market Prevalence Rates (MPR).
If you’re an Advisory client, you don’t need to do anything. We’ll send your report as usual with the latest data already included.
Keen to find out more?
If you have any questions or would like to discuss the update in more detail, get in touch via info@carterwood.co.uk
